{"site":{"name":"EconPulse","tagline":"The economy's vital signs, live: rates, prices, labor, activity nowcasts, markets, and prediction markets.","domain":"econpulse.pages.dev","userAgent":"EconPulse/0.1 (+https://econpulse.pages.dev; vital-signs dashboard)"},"instruments":[{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"4d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"pp","decimals":2,"history":780,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":false,"describe":"The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year. When it goes negative the bond market is pricing rate cuts ahead — an inversion has preceded every US recession since 1970.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · T10Y2Y","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"yield-curve-10y2y","section":"Vitals","title":"10y–2y Treasury spread","thresholds":[{"level":"warning","lte":0}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"14d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"% y/y","decimals":2,"history":160,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":false,"describe":"A ten-indicator index of real economic activity — retail sales, claims, steel output, rail traffic and more — scaled to look like GDP growth, published weekly instead of quarterly.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · WEI (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WEI","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"weekly-economic-index","section":"Vitals","title":"Weekly Economic Index","thresholds":[{"level":"serious","lte":-2},{"level":"warning","lte":0}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"120d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"% SAAR","decimals":1,"history":22,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":false,"describe":"The Atlanta Fed's running estimate of this quarter's real GDP growth, rebuilt from scratch every time a major data release lands — the closest thing to a live read on output. Dated to the quarter it forecasts, so the timestamp is the quarter start, not the vintage.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · GDPNOW (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPNOW","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"gdpnow","section":"Vitals","title":"GDPNow nowcast","thresholds":[{"level":"serious","lte":-2},{"level":"warning","lte":0}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"4d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"%","decimals":2,"history":780,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"What banks actually paid to borrow reserves overnight — the rate the FOMC steers. It should sit inside the Fed's target range; where it sits in that range says how tight cash is.","id":"fed-funds-effective","section":"Rates","title":"Effective fed funds rate","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of New York — reference rates","url":"https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr","license":"public domain (U.S. government)"},"thresholds":null},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"4d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"%","decimals":2,"history":780,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"The benchmark long-term US borrowing cost. It anchors mortgages, corporate debt and global asset pricing, and moves on growth and inflation expectations rather than Fed policy alone.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · DGS10","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"treasury-10y","section":"Rates","title":"10-year Treasury yield","thresholds":null},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"14d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"%","decimals":2,"history":160,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"Freddie Mac's weekly survey average for a 30-year fixed home loan — the single number that decides whether housing transactions happen. Published Thursdays.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · MORTGAGE30US (Freddie Mac PMMS)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"mortgage-30y","section":"Rates","title":"30-year fixed mortgage","thresholds":[{"level":"serious","gte":8},{"level":"warning","gte":7}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"45d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"%","decimals":2,"history":84,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"Headline consumer price inflation over the past twelve months — the 12-month change everyone quotes, computed here from the not-seasonally-adjusted CPI index (NSA is the basis of the reported headline number; year-over-year comparison already nets out seasonality). The Fed targets 2% (on a different index, PCE), so 3%+ is uncomfortable. Dated to the reference month, which is released about two weeks later.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · CPIAUCNS (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"cpi-yoy","section":"Prices","title":"CPI inflation (y/y)","thresholds":[{"level":"critical","gte":6},{"level":"serious","gte":4},{"level":"warning","gte":3}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"14d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"$/gal","decimals":3,"history":160,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"The national average pump price for regular gasoline, surveyed every Monday by the EIA. The most visible price in the economy and a heavy influence on consumer inflation expectations.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · GASREGW (U.S. Energy Information Administration)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"gas-regular","section":"Prices","title":"US regular gasoline","thresholds":[{"level":"critical","gte":5},{"level":"serious","gte":4},{"level":"warning","gte":3.5}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"45d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"%","decimals":1,"history":72,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"The share of the labour force actively looking for work, from the monthly household survey. Slow to turn, but once it rises half a point off its low it has never stopped there.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · UNRATE (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"unemployment-rate","section":"Labor","title":"Unemployment rate (U-3)","thresholds":[{"level":"critical","gte":7},{"level":"serious","gte":5.5},{"level":"warning","gte":4.5}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"14d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"claims","decimals":0,"history":160,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"People filing for unemployment benefits for the first time last week, seasonally adjusted. The fastest-moving labour market signal there is — it turns months before the unemployment rate.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · ICSA (U.S. Department of Labor)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA","license":"FRED® terms of use; underlying data public domain (U.S. government)"},"id":"initial-claims","section":"Labor","title":"Initial jobless claims","thresholds":[{"level":"critical","gte":400000},{"level":"serious","gte":300000},{"level":"warning","gte":250000}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"4d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"","decimals":2,"history":400,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":false,"describe":"The broad US equity benchmark, quoted during New York hours. Not an economic statistic, but the fastest-updating opinion on where the economy is going.","id":"sp500","section":"Markets","title":"S&P 500","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"Yahoo Finance (S&P 500, ^GSPC)","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/","license":"personal, non-commercial use only — see Yahoo Finance terms"},"thresholds":null},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"4d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"","decimals":2,"history":780,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"The options market's estimate of how much the S&P 500 will move over the next 30 days. Below 20 is calm; above 30 means investors are paying up hard for protection.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · VIXCLS (Cboe)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS","license":"Cboe index values redistributed via FRED"},"id":"vix","section":"Markets","title":"VIX volatility index","thresholds":[{"level":"critical","gte":40},{"level":"serious","gte":30},{"level":"warning","gte":20}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"4d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"pp","decimals":2,"history":780,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"The extra yield investors demand to lend to junk-rated US companies instead of the Treasury. The cleanest real-time gauge of credit stress: it blows out before defaults, not after.","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"FRED · BAMLH0A0HYM2 (ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS)","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2","license":"ICE Data Indices, LLC — used with permission, redistributed via FRED"},"id":"high-yield-spread","section":"Markets","title":"High-yield credit spread","thresholds":[{"level":"critical","gte":10},{"level":"serious","gte":7},{"level":"warning","gte":5}]},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":"4d","seriesMode":"merge","unit":"$T","decimals":3,"history":520,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"Every dollar the federal government owes, counted to the cent and republished each business day. Roughly four fifths is held by the public; the rest is owed to government trust funds.","id":"federal-debt","section":"Fiscal","title":"Total public debt outstanding","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"U.S. Treasury — Fiscal Data (Debt to the Penny)","url":"https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny","license":"public domain (U.S. government)"},"thresholds":null},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":null,"seriesMode":"merge","unit":"%","decimals":1,"history":700,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"The traded probability that the Fed leaves its target range unchanged at the next FOMC meeting. Real money, repriced by the market between our ~6-hourly snapshots — usually ahead of the economists.","id":"fomc-hold-odds","section":"Prediction markets","title":"Next FOMC: no change","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"Kalshi — Fed decision (KXFEDDECISION)","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision","license":"public market data, Kalshi terms of use"},"thresholds":null},{"kind":"metric","order":"desc","staleAfter":null,"seriesMode":"merge","unit":"%","decimals":1,"history":720,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"The traded probability that the NBER later dates the start of a US recession inside the current calendar year. Settles on the official NBER call, not on the two-negative-quarters rule of thumb.","id":"recession-odds","section":"Prediction markets","title":"US recession starts this year","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"Kalshi — Recession (KXRECSSNBER)","url":"https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecssnber","license":"public market data, Kalshi terms of use"},"thresholds":null},{"kind":"events","order":"desc","staleAfter":null,"seriesMode":"merge","unit":"","decimals":1,"history":120,"needsKey":null,"higherIsWorse":true,"describe":"Every official US macro release and Fed policy announcement as it publishes — the calendar behind every other number on this page. Rate decisions are flagged red, headline prints amber.","id":"data-releases","section":"Events","title":"Data releases & Fed","cadence":"6h","source":{"name":"Federal Reserve Board · BEA · Census Bureau (RSS)","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/feeds.htm","license":"public domain (U.S. government)"},"thresholds":null}]}